2024 hottest year on record: WMO report

Geneva [Switzerland], December 12: The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has projected that 2024 is on course to become the hottest year on record, primarily due to the diminishing cooling effect of the La Niña phenomenon.
La Niña, a climate event characterised by extensive cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, is associated with atmospheric changes such as altered wind patterns, pressure, and rainfall.
In its report, released today in Geneva, WMO suggested that La Niña conditions may develop in the next three months. Long-term forecasts from WMO's global prediction centres indicate a 55 percent likelihood of transitioning from the current neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) to La Niña conditions between December 2024 and February 2025.
The report also predicts a 55 percent probability of returning to neutral conditions by February to April 2025.
El Niño, the counterpart to La Niña, represents a warming phase, marked by a decrease in cold water upwelling near South America, leading to higher sea surface temperatures across the Pacific and subsequently warmer atmospheric conditions.
According to the WMO, La Niña typically results in broad-scale cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, accompanied by changes in tropical atmospheric circulation. These changes often produce climate impacts opposite to those of El Niño, particularly in tropical regions.
However, the report highlights that natural climate phenomena like La Niña and El Niño occur within the broader context of human-induced climate change. This overarching factor contributes to rising global temperatures, exacerbated extreme weather events, and altered precipitation patterns and seasonal temperatures.
The WMO noted that 2024 began under El Niño conditions and is likely to become the hottest year on record. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that even if La Niña emerges, its short-term cooling effect will not offset the warming caused by greenhouse gases trapping heat in the atmosphere.
She added that since May, even in the absence of El Niño or La Niña conditions, the world has experienced an extraordinary series of extreme weather events, including record-breaking rainfall and flooding, which are becoming the new normal in a changing climate.
The WMO stressed that seasonal forecasts of El Niño and La Niña, and their associated global climate impacts, are crucial tools for early warning and proactive measures.
According to the latest data, sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average across most ocean basins, except for the eastern equatorial Pacific, where weak La Niña conditions are anticipated. Consequently, temperatures across nearly all land areas are expected to remain above average.
Source: Emirates News Agency